TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137121
Played Sep 16Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611118811––
David Hons
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held David Hons at 64.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 3–5 David Hons Milan Flesar has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:36What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Hons
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1460 vs Hons 1656
Hons
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Hons 100%
Hons
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 40% vs Hons 90%
Hons
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +1 · Hons +5
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.20 / Hons 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hons)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13137121
Flesar2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 43 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Hons1.61
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 53 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFlesar3wins
AwayHons5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderHons leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar66.7%2 of 3
AwayHons80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar3Hons5n = 8Hons took 5 of 8
S2Flesar2Hons6n = 8Hons took 6 of 8
S3Flesar5Hons3n = 8Flesar took 5 of 8
S4Flesar4Hons2n = 6Flesar took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricFlesarHonsF − HBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.538.6−0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 405 vs 249 / 49452.6%50.4%213 / 405 vs 249 / 494Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsFlesar 2.20/Hons 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar399111091D. Hons3911512113
WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar4391211113D. Hons311110641
WAug 29 · 20:35M. Flesar4716911113D. Hons401411961
LJul 18 · 13:35M. Flesar2586110D. Hons351111133
WJul 18 · 12:05M. Flesar4311811133D. Hons345117111
LJun 21 · 19:35M. Flesar49711121182D. Hons481113103113
LJun 6 · 14:35M. Flesar3911311682D. Hons48811711113
LMar 7 · 19:05M. Flesar2381050D. Hons341112113
M. Flesar10
WSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113WSep 15 · 21:08J. Vidourek2.106970M. Flesar1.671111113LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113LSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171LSep 15 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.83127813113M. Flesar1.831011111192WSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482LSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130LSep 10 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.67111197143M. Flesar2.10921111122WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181
D. Hons10
LSep 16 · 11:05R. Vosyka1.576111215113D. Hons2.25119101732WSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191WSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113WSep 15 · 19:35D. Hons1.8311311113J. Vidourek1.83711751WSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113WSep 13 · 21:45D. Hons1.8311911113R. Pokorny1.83311891WSep 13 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6791181172D. Hons2.10115114113WSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111WSep 13 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.8097100D. Hons1.911111123LSep 12 · 21:34D. Hons1.836750K. Lahodny1.831111113
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