TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137155
Played Sep 15Finished
David Hons
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115114411119––
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 66 set 4, 11-9
66 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 7–3 Richard Vavricka Richard Vavricka has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Hons beat Vavricka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavricka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.44 / Vavricka 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Hons)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13137155
Hons1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite66% won 50 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Vavricka2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 21 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons7wins
AwayVavricka3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons71.4%5 of 7
AwayVavricka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons7Vavricka3n = 10Hons took 7 of 10
S2Hons5Vavricka5n = 10split evenly
S3Hons7Vavricka3n = 10Hons took 7 of 10
S4Hons6Vavricka2n = 8Hons took 6 of 8
S5Hons1Vavricka2n = 3Vavricka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsVavrickaH − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.936.5+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 493 vs 114 / 21950.3%52.1%248 / 493 vs 114 / 219Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.44/Vavricka 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 18:05D. Hons331111113R. Vavricka237790
WJul 31 · 20:05D. Hons46111311113R. Vavricka38815781
LJul 25 · 21:40D. Hons48119101172R. Vavricka50711129113
LJul 25 · 20:05D. Hons4311911842R. Vavricka45411811113
WJul 24 · 21:35D. Hons4514119113R. Vavricka351251171
WJul 24 · 20:05D. Hons4071111113R. Vavricka34116981
LJul 10 · 18:05D. Hons32491181R. Vavricka4011117113
WJan 30 · 19:35D. Hons331111113R. Vavricka218670
WDec 13 · 18:10D. Hons47811611113R. Vavricka4811811992
WDec 12 · 20:35D. Hons4212811113R. Vavricka311011821
D. Hons10
WSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113WSep 15 · 19:35D. Hons1.8311311113J. Vidourek1.83711751WSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113WSep 13 · 21:45D. Hons1.8311911113R. Pokorny1.83311891WSep 13 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6791181172D. Hons2.10115114113WSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111WSep 13 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.8097100D. Hons1.911111123LSep 12 · 21:34D. Hons1.836750K. Lahodny1.831111113WSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.209690WSep 12 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.73811111072D. Hons2.00117512113
R. Vavricka10
WSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690WSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171LSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113LSep 13 · 09:40J. Jr2.101112113R. Vavricka1.6721060WSep 13 · 08:05R. Neterda1.8047111172R. Vavricka1.91111139113WSep 13 · 07:35M. Chmelicek2.109860R. Vavricka1.671111113LSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka1.57101171162J. Jr2.25129116113WSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350WSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38117118162R. Fitl1.53711611183
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
R. Vavricka
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