TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137414
Played Sep 16Finished
David Hons
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171111012118––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held David Hons at 65.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 8–6 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:47What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Hons
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1653 vs Chmelicek 1386
Hons
Correct
both rated, 267 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Chmelicek 40%
Hons
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 90% vs Chmelicek 50%
Hons
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -1 · Chmelicek -3
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.50 / Chmelicek 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Hons)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13137414
Hons1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite67% won 53 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Chmelicek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 59 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons6wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons66.7%2 of 3
AwayChmelicek42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons3Chmelicek7n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S2Hons8Chmelicek2n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Hons6Chmelicek4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S4Hons4Chmelicek2n = 6Hons took 4 of 6
S5Hons1Chmelicek2n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsChmelicekH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.934.5+2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 496 vs 234 / 49850.4%47%250 / 496 vs 234 / 498Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.50/Chmelicek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek249690
LAug 7 · 19:35D. Hons3911116652M. Chmelicek47681111113
WJul 18 · 18:05D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek198830
WJul 18 · 10:05D. Hons3941113113M. Chmelicek291121151
WJun 30 · 15:35D. Hons50811146113M. Chmelicek45116121152
LJun 21 · 18:35D. Hons268990M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 21:35D. Hons185850M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 19:05D. Hons48711101192M. Chmelicek52119129113
WJun 16 · 19:05D. Hons4271311113M. Chmelicek361111771
WMar 31 · 21:05D. Hons4181111113M. Chmelicek27113851
D. Hons10
LSep 16 · 11:05R. Vosyka1.576111215113D. Hons2.25119101732WSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113WSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191WSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113WSep 15 · 19:35D. Hons1.8311311113J. Vidourek1.83711751WSep 15 · 18:05R. Vavricka2.107790D. Hons1.671111113WSep 13 · 21:45D. Hons1.8311911113R. Pokorny1.83311891WSep 13 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6791181172D. Hons2.10115114113WSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111WSep 13 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.8097100D. Hons1.911111123
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113LSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:05R. Vosyka1.44119511163M. Chmelicek2.63711115142LSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113WSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113WSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492LSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
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