TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13140399
Played Sep 16Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116711811911––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Milan Flesar at 65.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 29–11 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 11 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Flesar beat Chmelicek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Flesar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-11 in 40
Flesar
Wrong
gap of 18 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1472 vs Chmelicek 1382
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Chmelicek 20%
Flesar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 40% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +2 · Chmelicek -4
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Flesar)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13140399
Flesar1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 75 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 85
Chmelicek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 59 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar66.7%4 of 6
AwayChmelicek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar6Chmelicek4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Flesar6Chmelicek4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S3Flesar7Chmelicek3n = 10Flesar took 7 of 10
S4Flesar3Chmelicek5n = 8Chmelicek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarChmelicekF − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.033.2+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 408 vs 234 / 49952.7%46.9%215 / 408 vs 234 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 11:35M. Flesar44211119113M. Chmelicek4411581192
WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar4291111113M. Chmelicek32118941
LAug 28 · 21:33M. Flesar31741191M. Chmelicek3911116113
WAug 28 · 20:05M. Flesar42413113113M. Chmelicek38111121132
LAug 23 · 20:35M. Flesar25113831M. Chmelicek345111173
LJul 23 · 20:05M. Flesar381376121M. Chmelicek47111111143
WJul 22 · 20:05M. Flesar331111113M. Chmelicek144640
WJul 21 · 21:33M. Flesar4211119113M. Chmelicek33891151
WJul 21 · 20:05M. Flesar4011612113M. Chmelicek368111071
WJul 18 · 11:35M. Flesar331111113M. Chmelicek153660
M. Flesar10
WSep 16 · 12:05R. Vosyka1.3611116752M. Flesar3.00761111113WSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113WSep 15 · 21:08J. Vidourek2.106970M. Flesar1.671111113LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113LSep 15 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5711119113M. Flesar2.25691171LSep 15 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.83127813113M. Flesar1.831011111192WSep 10 · 21:10M. Flesar1.63118711113T. Krcil2.1531111482LSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130LSep 10 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.67111197143M. Flesar2.10921111122
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:05R. Vosyka1.44119511163M. Chmelicek2.63711115142LSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113WSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113WSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492LSep 13 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.80911691P. Pesout1.9111911113LSep 13 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.40115311113M. Chmelicek2.7571111752
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