TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139321
Played Sep 16Finished
Lubomir Vana
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211611811––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLubomir Vana to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLubomir Vana above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 49 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Lubomir Vana at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Lubomir Vana 1–3 Martin Chmelicek Lubomir Vana has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vana
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1489 vs Chmelicek 1397
Vana
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 80% vs Chmelicek 20%
Vana
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 70% vs Chmelicek 50%
Vana
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana +2 · Chmelicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vana)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13139321
Vana1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Chmelicek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 59 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVana1wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderChmelicek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana1Chmelicek3n = 4Chmelicek took 3 of 4
S2Vana1Chmelicek3n = 4Chmelicek took 3 of 4
S3Vana2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
S4Vana3Chmelicek0n = 3Vana took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricVanaChmelicekV − CBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match40.242.8−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 64 vs 235 / 50045.3%47%29 / 64 vs 235 / 500Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaVana 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMar 24 · 21:35L. Vana3078150M. Chmelicek391111173
WMar 16 · 21:35L. Vana43101111113M. Chmelicek30129721
LFeb 28 · 21:35L. Vana4211681162M. Chmelicek50911118113
LFeb 27 · 19:35L. Vana4677121192M. Chmelicek521111109113
L. Vana10
LSep 16 · 15:35J. Jr1.83115711123L. Vana1.83811119102WMar 26 · 22:35L. Vosyka—115119102L. Vana—511511123WMar 26 · 21:35J. Vidourek2.14117971L. Vana1.6141111113LMar 26 · 20:35L. Vana—11150L. Vosyka—1311113WMar 26 · 19:05R. Pokorny—31191272L. Vana—1161110113WMar 24 · 22:10J. Vidourek—10131211112L. Vana—1211148133LMar 24 · 21:35L. Vana1.7878150M. Chmelicek1.901111173LMar 24 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.811111113L. Vana1.868720WMar 24 · 19:35J. Vidourek2.02711841L. Vana1.6811811113WMar 16 · 22:45L. Vosyka1.629119111L. Vana2.1111711133
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda1.5011711113M. Chmelicek2.50611651WSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113LSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:05R. Vosyka1.44119511163M. Chmelicek2.63711115142LSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113WSep 15 · 14:35T. Krcil1.83116751M. Chmelicek1.8351111113WMar 24 · 21:35L. Vana1.7878150M. Chmelicek1.901111173
Upcoming Matches
L. Vana
Nothing scheduled
M. Chmelicek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.