TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156723
Played Sep 19Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711111––––
David Hons
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 52 set 3, 1-11 — our read held David Hons at 62.8%
52 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 3–7 David Hons Milan Flesar has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Hons
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1480 vs Hons 1607
Hons
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Hons 60%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 50% vs Hons 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -2 · Hons +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 3.50 / Hons 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Hons)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13156723
Flesar3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 18 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Hons1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 56 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar3wins
AwayHons7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar50%2 of 4
AwayHons83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Flesar2Hons8n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Flesar6Hons4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S4Flesar4Hons4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarHonsF − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.6−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 415 vs 255 / 50452.5%50.6%218 / 415 vs 255 / 504Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsFlesar 3.50/Hons 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.1%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar361110961D. Hons3621211113
LSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar31661181D. Hons4111118113
LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar399111091D. Hons3911512113
WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar4391211113D. Hons311110641
WAug 29 · 20:35M. Flesar4716911113D. Hons401411961
LJul 18 · 13:35M. Flesar2586110D. Hons351111133
WJul 18 · 12:05M. Flesar4311811133D. Hons345117111
LJun 21 · 19:35M. Flesar49711121182D. Hons481113103113
LJun 6 · 14:35M. Flesar3911311682D. Hons48811711113
LMar 7 · 19:05M. Flesar2381050D. Hons341112113
M. Flesar10
WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181LSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080WSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113WSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040WSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642LSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113WSep 16 · 12:05R. Vosyka1.3611116752M. Flesar3.00761111113WSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140LSep 16 · 13:40D. Hons2.20117871R. Vosyka1.6181111113WSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:05R. Vosyka1.576111215113D. Hons2.25119101732
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