TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156166
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811115811119115
David Hons
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 20–14 David Hons David Hons has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-14 in 34
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1657 vs Hons 1607
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Hons 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 70% vs Hons 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +1 · Hons +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.61 / Hons 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Ruzicka)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13156166
Ruzicka1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 84 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it86% 67 of 78
Hons2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 58 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka8wins
AwayHons2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%5 of 5
AwayHons40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S2Ruzicka7Hons3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Hons4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka4Hons0n = 4Ruzicka took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaHonsR − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.229.6+6.6per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 430 vs 255 / 50452.6%50.6%226 / 430 vs 255 / 504Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.61/Hons 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka49811811113D. Hons4111511952
WAug 27 · 16:05J. Ruzicka351111133D. Hons2797110
WAug 20 · 17:35J. Ruzicka331111113D. Hons176560
LAug 20 · 16:35J. Ruzicka185850D. Hons331111113
WAug 8 · 11:05J. Ruzicka331111113D. Hons226790
WAug 8 · 07:05J. Ruzicka44111111113D. Hons31133961
LJul 28 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2710890D. Hons341211113
WJul 1 · 19:05J. Ruzicka4011711113D. Hons31911471
WJun 30 · 14:35J. Ruzicka507111011113D. Hons3511312542
WJun 27 · 09:15J. Ruzicka331111113D. Hons259790
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181WSep 17 · 13:39O. Pros2.2064110J. Ruzicka1.611111133LSep 17 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.361051181O. Pros3.0012116113WSep 17 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73126127113R. Neterda2.001011101182WSep 17 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.671111113L. Vosyka2.104920LSep 12 · 09:38R. Fitl2.10111213113J. Ruzicka1.677141151LSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143WSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 10 · 13:38R. Vosyka1.578480J. Ruzicka2.251111113
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140LSep 16 · 13:40D. Hons2.20117871R. Vosyka1.6181111113WSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:05R. Vosyka1.576111215113D. Hons2.25119101732WSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113WSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191
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