TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13154912
Played Sep 18Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169116111012––
David Hons
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-10
Point 73 set 4, 9-10 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 54.0%
73 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–0 David Hons David Hons has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:09What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Motacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1487 vs Hons 1585
Hons
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 40% vs Hons 60%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 70% vs Hons 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +1 · Hons +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.73 / Hons 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hons)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13154912
Motacek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Hons2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 60 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back9% 6 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayHons0wins
Motacek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMotacekHonsM − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.025.0+14.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 39 vs 253 / 50156.4%50.5%22 / 39 vs 253 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsMotacek 1.73/Hons 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek3911611113D. Hons25611621
T. Motacek10
WSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621LSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642WSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113LSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 15:35T. Motacek1.911156101L. Vosyka1.8061111123WSep 17 · 14:05T. Krcil2.00117121182T. Motacek1.73811147113WSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371WSep 12 · 16:35T. Motacek1.531111113R. Hruby2.383880WSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113
D. Hons10
WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140LSep 16 · 13:40D. Hons2.20117871R. Vosyka1.6181111113WSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:05R. Vosyka1.576111215113D. Hons2.25119101732WSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113WSep 15 · 21:38D. Hons1.4411114113R. Vavricka2.63541191WSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar2.009111091D. Hons1.7311512113WSep 15 · 19:35D. Hons1.8311311113J. Vidourek1.83711751
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