TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121235
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119113117––
Jirasek Martin
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7
72 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–1 Jirasek Martin Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Motacek beat Martin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.83 / Martin 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Martin)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13121235
Motacek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Martin1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayMartin1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMotacekMartinMotacek − MartinBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.540.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime17 / 31 vs 41 / 8054.8%51.3%17 / 31 vs 41 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMotacek 1.83/Martin 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 12 · 15:05T. Motacek43101111113J. Martin38128991
LAug 27 · 18:05T. Motacek361011691J. Martin4312911113
T. Motacek10
WSep 12 · 16:35T. Motacek1.531111113R. Hruby2.383880WSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:35P. Pesout1.8086110T. Motacek1.911111133LSep 12 · 13:35K. Lahodny1.531311113T. Motacek2.3811370WSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:35T. Motacek2.0011611652J. Jr1.73711911113LSep 12 · 10:05K. Lahodny1.731111123T. Motacek2.0085100WSep 9 · 17:05T. Motacek1.501111113M. Rojka2.505780WSep 9 · 16:35M. Rojka1.732740T. Motacek2.001111113LSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113
J. Martin10
LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.4013115862J. Martin2.751161111113WSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110WSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:35O. Pros2.634111111113J. Martin1.4411137792
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