TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156749
Played Sep 19Finished
David Hons
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116116118––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Lovl at 56.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 5–18 Jan Lovl David Hons has won 5 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-18 in 23
Lovl
Wrong
gap of 13 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1596 vs Lovl 1582
Hons
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 60% vs Lovl 80%
Lovl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 60% vs Lovl 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -1 · Lovl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 2.20 / Lovl 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Lovl)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13156749
Hons2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 58 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Lovl1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons3wins
AwayLovl7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons60%3 of 5
AwayLovl100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons5Lovl5n = 10split evenly
S2Hons7Lovl3n = 10Hons took 7 of 10
S3Hons2Lovl8n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S4Hons4Lovl4n = 8split evenly
S5Hons1Lovl4n = 5Lovl took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsLovlH − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.342.9−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 503 vs 178 / 34250.5%52.1%254 / 503 vs 178 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlHons 2.20/Lovl 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 16:35D. Hons44111111472J. Lovl48761311113
LAug 2 · 15:35D. Hons187740J. Lovl331111113
LAug 1 · 12:05D. Hons3912661142J. Lovl521011119113
LJul 16 · 11:35D. Hons4077111142J. Lovl49111188113
LJun 30 · 17:40D. Hons398118121J. Lovl4011411143
WJun 30 · 16:05D. Hons3911116113J. Lovl33691171
LJun 27 · 08:35D. Hons5491371692J. Lovl5811111114113
WJun 22 · 10:05D. Hons371411123J. Lovl31129100
LJun 12 · 17:10D. Hons33811591J. Lovl4211911113
WJun 12 · 16:35D. Hons50111279113J. Lovl43610111152
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140LSep 16 · 13:40D. Hons2.20117871R. Vosyka1.6181111113WSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:05R. Vosyka1.576111215113D. Hons2.25119101732WSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113
J. Lovl10
LSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251WSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080LSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113WSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272WSep 13 · 15:05J. Lovl1.441111153K. Lahodny2.6378130WSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101LSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113WSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
J. Lovl
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