TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156513
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Milan Flesar
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 77.1% is still 77.1%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
77.1%
77.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Lovl at 77.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 6–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Lovl
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1571 vs Flesar 1480
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Flesar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 60% vs Flesar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -1 · Flesar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.25 / Flesar 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Lovl)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13156513
Lovl1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Flesar3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 18 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLovl6wins
AwayFlesar1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderLovl leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl85.7%6 of 7
AwayFlesarn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl7Flesar0n = 7Lovl took 7 of 7
S2Lovl5Flesar2n = 7Lovl took 5 of 7
S3Lovl6Flesar1n = 7Lovl took 6 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home571%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricLovlFlesarL − FBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set70+7of 7Avg pointsper match38.129.6+8.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 343 vs 218 / 41551.9%52.5%178 / 343 vs 218 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.25/Flesar 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl341112113M. Flesar2681080
WSep 6 · 06:35J. Lovl331111113M. Flesar225980
WAug 9 · 17:05J. Lovl331111113M. Flesar206860
LAug 9 · 15:35J. Lovl49119811102M. Flesar49611119123
WAug 3 · 15:35J. Lovl481131112113M. Flesar4151141472
WFeb 20 · 14:35J. Lovl371113133M. Flesar30811110
WFeb 20 · 12:05J. Lovl331111113M. Flesar195860
J. Lovl10
LSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113WSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272WSep 13 · 15:05J. Lovl1.441111153K. Lahodny2.6378130WSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101LSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:35R. Fitl1.73551191J. Lovl2.0011117113LSep 11 · 11:35J. Lovl2.63612111172R. Fnukal1.44111473113WSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962
M. Flesar10
LSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181WSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113WSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040WSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642LSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113WSep 16 · 12:05R. Vosyka1.3611116752M. Flesar3.00761111113WSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar2.20661181D. Hons1.6111118113WSep 15 · 21:08J. Vidourek2.106970M. Flesar1.671111113
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