TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156736
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117112119––––
Milan Flesar
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 72.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 4–2 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Ruzicka beat Flesar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1653 vs Flesar 1475
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 80% vs Flesar 40%
Ruzicka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 60% vs Flesar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -1 · Flesar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.33 / Flesar 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Ruzicka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13156736
Ruzicka1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 84 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it86% 67 of 78
Flesar3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 18 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRuzicka4wins
AwayFlesar2wins
Ruzicka leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka80%4 of 5
AwayFlesarn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka5Flesar1n = 6Ruzicka took 5 of 6
S2Ruzicka4Flesar2n = 6Ruzicka took 4 of 6
S3Ruzicka3Flesar3n = 6split evenly
S4Ruzicka2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricRuzickaFlesarR − FBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match36.030.3+5.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 432 vs 219 / 41752.6%52.5%227 / 432 vs 219 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.33/Flesar 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka3911116113M. Flesar31571181
LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka377126121M. Flesar46111011143
WAug 13 · 14:35J. Ruzicka331111113M. Flesar208660
LAug 13 · 13:03J. Ruzicka361187101M. Flesar4281111123
WAug 13 · 10:05J. Ruzicka3811511113M. Flesar25711431
WApr 3 · 18:05J. Ruzicka331111113M. Flesar185670
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251WSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181WSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 17 · 13:39O. Pros2.2064110J. Ruzicka1.611111133LSep 17 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.361051181O. Pros3.0012116113WSep 17 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73126127113R. Neterda2.001011101182WSep 17 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.671111113L. Vosyka2.104920LSep 12 · 09:38R. Fitl2.10111213113J. Ruzicka1.677141151LSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143
M. Flesar10
LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113LSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181LSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080WSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113WSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040WSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642LSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113
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