TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159516
Played Sep 19Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117911811811––
Jan Ruzicka
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 3–4 Jan Ruzicka Jan Manhal Jr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jr beat Ruzicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1445 vs Ruzicka 1651
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Ruzicka 70%
Ruzicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Ruzicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.50 / Ruzicka 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Ruzicka)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13159516
Jr2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 11 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back31% 4 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Ruzicka1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 84 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it92% 47 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it86% 67 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJr3wins
AwayRuzicka4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderRuzicka leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRuzicka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Ruzicka5n = 7Ruzicka took 5 of 7
S2Jr5Ruzicka2n = 7Jr took 5 of 7
S3Jr1Ruzicka6n = 7Ruzicka took 6 of 7
S4Jr4Ruzicka2n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S5Jr2Ruzicka2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJrRuzickaJ − RBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.640.4−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 61 vs 229 / 43544.3%52.6%27 / 61 vs 229 / 435Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaJr 2.50/Ruzicka 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr45511611123J. Ruzicka47118117102
LSep 12 · 07:05J. Jr39139891J. Ruzicka44111111113
LAug 23 · 07:05J. Jr197570J. Ruzicka331111113
WAug 13 · 15:35J. Jr42111235113J. Ruzicka42410111162
LAug 6 · 17:14J. Jr3951181142J. Ruzicka47116118113
LAug 6 · 15:05J. Jr4571181182J. Ruzicka42116113113
WJul 26 · 09:33J. Jr4181111113J. Ruzicka28113681
J. Jr10
LSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291WSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113WSep 16 · 15:35J. Jr1.83115711123L. Vana1.83811119102LSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850LSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492WSep 13 · 12:05K. Lahodny1.53781151J. Jr2.3811115113LSep 13 · 11:35P. Pesout2.7511118133J. Jr1.405911111
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113LSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290LSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251WSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181WSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 17 · 13:39O. Pros2.2064110J. Ruzicka1.611111133LSep 17 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.361051181O. Pros3.0012116113WSep 17 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73126127113R. Neterda2.001011101182
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