TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158374
Played Sep 19Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119119––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 58.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 1–2 Martin Chmelicek Jirasek Martin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1478 vs Chmelicek 1366
Martin
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 20% vs Chmelicek 40%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 50% vs Chmelicek 30%
Martin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -4 · Chmelicek -1
Martin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.67 / Chmelicek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Martin)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13158374
Martin1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 17 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Chmelicek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 61 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMartin1wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
Chmelicek leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin1Chmelicek2n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S2Martin3Chmelicek0n = 3Martin took 3 of 3
S3Martin1Chmelicek2n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMartinChmelicekM − CBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.037.0−4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 82 vs 239 / 51350%46.6%41 / 82 vs 239 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.67/Chmelicek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 27 · 21:03J. Martin374111571M. Chmelicek4711817113
LAug 27 · 19:05J. Martin291116111M. Chmelicek4211711133
WAug 7 · 18:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek229670
J. Martin10
LSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.4013115862J. Martin2.751161111113WSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 18 · 21:18M. Chmelicek1.44111111113M. Dvorak2.63135391LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113LSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040LSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140WSep 16 · 17:14M. Chmelicek1.571112113L. Vana2.2581080
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