TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13141594
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Lubomir Vana
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Lubomir Vana below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8
60 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 4–1 Lubomir Vana Lubomir Vana has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chmelicek beat Vana 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.57 / Vana 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Chmelicek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13141594
Chmelicek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it68% 49 of 72
Vana2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChmelicek4wins
AwayVana1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderChmelicek leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek75%3 of 4
AwayVanan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek4Vana1n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
S2Chmelicek4Vana1n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
S3Chmelicek3Vana2n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S4Chmelicek0Vana3n = 3Vana took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricChmelicekVanaC − VBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.835.4+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekVanaBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 503 vs 29 / 6446.9%45.3%236 / 503 vs 29 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.57/Vana 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 16 · 14:35M. Chmelicek331111113L. Vana162680
WMar 24 · 21:35M. Chmelicek391111173L. Vana3078150
LMar 16 · 21:35M. Chmelicek30129721L. Vana43101111113
WFeb 28 · 21:35M. Chmelicek50911118113L. Vana4211681162
WFeb 27 · 19:35M. Chmelicek521111109113L. Vana4677121192
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113LSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda1.5011711113M. Chmelicek2.50611651WSep 16 · 14:35L. Vana1.802680M. Chmelicek1.911111113WSep 16 · 13:10M. Flesar1.80117891M. Chmelicek1.9161111113LSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons1.50111110113M. Chmelicek2.50711281LSep 16 · 11:35M. Chmelicek1.8311581192M. Flesar1.83211119113LSep 16 · 10:05R. Vosyka1.44119511163M. Chmelicek2.63711115142LSep 15 · 17:40M. Chmelicek1.8376111172T. Krcil1.83111195113WSep 15 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.91114147113P. Pesout1.80811121162WSep 15 · 15:05O. Pros1.91611281M. Chmelicek1.8011611113
L. Vana10
LSep 16 · 16:05R. Neterda1.831061111113L. Vana1.8312116682LSep 16 · 15:35J. Jr1.83115711123L. Vana1.83811119102LSep 16 · 14:35L. Vana1.802680M. Chmelicek1.911111113WMar 26 · 22:35L. Vosyka—115119102L. Vana—511511123WMar 26 · 21:35J. Vidourek2.14117971L. Vana1.6141111113LMar 26 · 20:35L. Vana—11150L. Vosyka—1311113WMar 26 · 19:05R. Pokorny—31191272L. Vana—1161110113WMar 24 · 22:10J. Vidourek—10131211112L. Vana—1211148133LMar 24 · 21:35L. Vana1.7878150M. Chmelicek1.901111173LMar 24 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.811111113L. Vana1.868720
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.