TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156295
Played Sep 18Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115113119––
Miloslav Dvorak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Miloslav Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9
74 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 7–9 Miloslav Dvorak Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Chmelicek beat Dvorak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.44 / Dvorak 2.63
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Chmelicek)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13156295
Chmelicek1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 62 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it68% 50 of 74
Dvorak2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog36% won 5 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek6wins
AwayDvorak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek71.4%5 of 7
AwayDvorak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek7Dvorak3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S2Chmelicek5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S3Chmelicek4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek3Dvorak4n = 7Dvorak took 4 of 7
S5Chmelicek3Dvorak1n = 4Chmelicek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekDvorakC − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.137.6+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 511 vs 46 / 11846.6%39%238 / 511 vs 46 / 118Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.44/Dvorak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 19:35M. Chmelicek331111113M. Dvorak269980
WJul 23 · 21:20M. Chmelicek521110911113M. Dvorak4681211782
LJul 23 · 18:05M. Chmelicek226970M. Dvorak331111113
LJul 22 · 21:23M. Chmelicek26711711M. Dvorak4111811113
WJul 22 · 18:05M. Chmelicek4211119113M. Dvorak30771151
WJul 17 · 19:35M. Chmelicek516121111113M. Dvorak4411146672
WMar 28 · 22:15M. Chmelicek351111133M. Dvorak2274110
WMar 28 · 21:35M. Chmelicek49117119113M. Dvorak4781181192
LMar 14 · 14:15M. Chmelicek4811119892M. Dvorak45481111113
LMar 14 · 13:05M. Chmelicek331151251M. Dvorak4261114113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113LSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040LSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140WSep 16 · 17:14M. Chmelicek1.571112113L. Vana2.2581080LSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113LSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda1.5011711113M. Chmelicek2.50611651
M. Dvorak10
LSep 18 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.91116135113M. Dvorak1.80811111172LSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.7561130R. Vavricka1.401113113LJul 25 · 18:05D. Hons1.401111113M. Dvorak2.756390LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132LJul 23 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.003590M. Flesar1.731111113
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