TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12300091
Played Jul 25Finished
Miloslav Dvorak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111113311––––
Richard Vavricka
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiloslav Dvorak above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 55 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 71.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Dvorak 0–2 Richard Vavricka Miloslav Dvorak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vavricka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1304 vs Vavricka 1469
Vavricka
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Vavricka 80%
Vavricka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 30% vs Vavricka 70%
Vavricka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -4 · Vavricka +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.75 / Vavricka 1.40
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Vavricka)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12300091
Dvorak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 7 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Vavricka1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 19 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDvorak0wins
AwayVavricka2wins
Vavricka leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricDvorakVavrickaD − VBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match29.537.5−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 112 vs 82 / 16140.2%50.9%45 / 112 vs 82 / 161Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaDvorak 2.75/Vavricka 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMar 28 · 19:05M. Dvorak—9119111R. Vavricka—11711133
LJan 10 · 13:05M. Dvorak—7750R. Vavricka—1111113
M. Dvorak10
WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 18:05D. Hons1.401111113M. Dvorak2.756390LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132LJul 23 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.003590M. Flesar1.731111113WJul 23 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.806970M. Dvorak1.911111113WJul 22 · 21:23M. Chmelicek1.73711711M. Dvorak2.0011811113WJul 22 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.20691111112M. Dvorak1.61111199133LJul 22 · 19:35M. Dvorak1.671740M. Flesar2.101111113
R. Vavricka10
WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390WSep 8 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.5711311113O. Pros2.25711791LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113
Upcoming Matches
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R. Vavricka
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