TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12298752
Played Jul 25Finished
David Hons
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116113119––––
Miloslav Dvorak
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Miloslav Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 — our read held David Hons at 57.8%
51 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 1–0 Miloslav Dvorak Miloslav Dvorak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hons 1546 vs Dvorak 1315
Hons
Correct
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 60% vs Dvorak 40%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 60% vs Dvorak 30%
Hons
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +3 · Dvorak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.40 / Dvorak 2.75
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Hons)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12298752
Hons1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 46 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Dvorak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 7 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHons1wins
AwayDvorak0wins
Hons leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHonsDvorakH − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.035.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 410 vs 45 / 11150%40.5%205 / 410 vs 45 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.40/Dvorak 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJan 16 · 19:35D. Hons—11118113M. Dvorak—891171
D. Hons10
WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280WSep 7 · 16:35D. Hons2.0081112113L. Vosyka1.731151071LSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870LSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851
M. Dvorak10
WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.7561130R. Vavricka1.401113113LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132LJul 23 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.003590M. Flesar1.731111113WJul 23 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.806970M. Dvorak1.911111113WJul 22 · 21:23M. Chmelicek1.73711711M. Dvorak2.0011811113WJul 22 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.20691111112M. Dvorak1.61111199133LJul 22 · 19:35M. Dvorak1.671740M. Flesar2.101111113
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