TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12287398
Played Jul 23Finished
Miloslav Dvorak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511911––––
Milan Flesar
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiloslav Dvorak above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 50 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Dvorak 2–8 Milan Flesar Miloslav Dvorak has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Flesar
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1350 vs Flesar 1551
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Flesar 80%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 30% vs Flesar 80%
Flesar
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +3 · Flesar +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.00 / Flesar 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Flesar)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12287398
Dvorak2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 6 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Flesar1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 71 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it96% 47 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it79% 60 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwayFlesar8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFlesar leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak33.3%1 of 3
AwayFlesar85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak3Flesar7n = 10Flesar took 7 of 10
S2Dvorak4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak3Flesar7n = 10Flesar took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak3Flesar4n = 7Flesar took 4 of 7
S5Dvorak1Flesar3n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakFlesarD − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.741.0−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 108 vs 167 / 30741.7%54.4%45 / 108 vs 167 / 307Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarDvorak 2.00/Flesar 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 19:35M. Dvorak—1740M. Flesar—1111113
LJul 17 · 21:05M. Dvorak—87111192M. Flesar—111177113
LJul 17 · 18:05M. Dvorak—6119101M. Flesar—11911123
LMar 28 · 20:35M. Dvorak—5111131M. Flesar—11913113
LMar 21 · 14:10M. Dvorak—11641162M. Flesar—811117113
WMar 21 · 11:35M. Dvorak—91112113M. Flesar—1141071
WFeb 26 · 14:15M. Dvorak—1111117133M. Flesar—513811112
LFeb 26 · 13:05M. Dvorak—51240M. Flesar—1114113
LFeb 24 · 15:35M. Dvorak—4790M. Flesar—1111113
LFeb 4 · 11:35M. Dvorak—11119892M. Flesar—851111113
M. Dvorak10
WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.7561130R. Vavricka1.401113113LJul 25 · 18:05D. Hons1.401111113M. Dvorak2.756390LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132WJul 23 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.806970M. Dvorak1.911111113WJul 22 · 21:23M. Chmelicek1.73711711M. Dvorak2.0011811113WJul 22 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.20691111112M. Dvorak1.61111199133LJul 22 · 19:35M. Dvorak1.671740M. Flesar2.101111113
M. Flesar10
LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WJul 22 · 19:35M. Dvorak1.671740M. Flesar2.101111113
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