TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12287402
Played Jul 23Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911711––––
Miloslav Dvorak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Miloslav Dvorak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 5–7 Miloslav Dvorak Martin Chmelicek has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1376 vs Dvorak 1334
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 20% vs Dvorak 40%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 40% vs Dvorak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -3 · Dvorak +2
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.80 / Dvorak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12287402
Chmelicek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 47 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Dvorak1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 6 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek4wins
AwayDvorak6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek60%3 of 5
AwayDvorak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S2Chmelicek4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Chmelicek6Dvorak4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek2Dvorak6n = 8Dvorak took 6 of 8
S5Chmelicek2Dvorak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekDvorakC − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.7+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 359 vs 44 / 10746.8%41.1%168 / 359 vs 44 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.80/Dvorak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—11119113M. Dvorak—771151
WJul 17 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—6121111113M. Dvorak—11146672
WMar 28 · 22:15M. Chmelicek—1111133M. Dvorak—74110
WMar 28 · 21:35M. Chmelicek—117119113M. Dvorak—81181192
LMar 14 · 14:15M. Chmelicek—11119892M. Dvorak—481111113
LMar 14 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—1151251M. Dvorak—61114113
LJan 16 · 22:10M. Chmelicek—841191M. Dvorak—11116113
LJan 16 · 21:35M. Chmelicek—1081161M. Dvorak—12111113
LJan 1 · 14:40M. Chmelicek—1111111172M. Dvorak—134913113
LJan 1 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—9620M. Dvorak—1111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
M. Dvorak10
WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.7561130R. Vavricka1.401113113LJul 25 · 18:05D. Hons1.401111113M. Dvorak2.756390LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132LJul 23 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.003590M. Flesar1.731111113WJul 22 · 21:23M. Chmelicek1.73711711M. Dvorak2.0011811113WJul 22 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.20691111112M. Dvorak1.61111199133LJul 22 · 19:35M. Dvorak1.671740M. Flesar2.101111113
Upcoming Matches
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