TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152644
Played Sep 18Finished
Miroslav Cyrus
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1186111311511117
Miloslav Dvorak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Cyrus to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cyrus above · Miloslav Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Miroslav Cyrus at 54.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cyrus 3–3 Miloslav Dvorak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrus 1326 vs Dvorak 1300
Cyrus
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrus 60% vs Dvorak 20%
Cyrus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrus 40% vs Dvorak 20%
Cyrus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrus -1 · Dvorak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrus 1.91 / Dvorak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13152644
Cyrus1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 18 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back17% 6 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Dvorak1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite40% won 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeCyrus3wins
AwayDvorak3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrus66.7%2 of 3
AwayDvorak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrus3Dvorak3n = 6split evenly
S2Cyrus3Dvorak3n = 6split evenly
S3Cyrus3Dvorak3n = 6split evenly
S4Cyrus4Dvorak1n = 5Cyrus took 4 of 5
S5Cyrus1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricCyrusDvorakC − DBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.241.3+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrusDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 194 vs 46 / 11745.4%39.3%88 / 194 vs 46 / 117Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakCyrus 1.91/Dvorak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 22 · 20:35M. Cyrus48691111112M. Dvorak53111199133
WMar 15 · 18:20M. Cyrus45115711113M. Dvorak4361111962
LMar 15 · 16:05M. Cyrus471112311102M. Dvorak521310116123
LMar 5 · 17:05M. Cyrus32117861M. Dvorak3851111113
WDec 30 · 14:40M. Cyrus391111173M. Dvorak2555150
WDec 30 · 11:35M. Cyrus48101611113M. Dvorak371214381
M. Cyrus10
LSep 18 · 21:48J. Kabelka1.831111113M. Cyrus1.839680LSep 18 · 19:05J. Kabelka1.91119119113M. Cyrus1.8071171182WSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 16 · 21:45L. Vosyka1.4411611113M. Cyrus2.63711881WSep 16 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.0016811113R. Jonas1.731411891WSep 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5061111182M. Cyrus2.50111178113LSep 16 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.5311118113M. Cyrus2.38571171LSep 14 · 21:05M. Cyrus2.00331191R. Jonas1.7311117113LSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440WSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113
M. Dvorak10
LSep 18 · 21:18M. Chmelicek1.44111111113M. Dvorak2.63135391LSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.7561130R. Vavricka1.401113113LJul 25 · 18:05D. Hons1.401111113M. Dvorak2.756390LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132LJul 23 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.003590M. Flesar1.731111113
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