TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152656
Played Sep 18Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911117911118
Miroslav Cyrus
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Cyrus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Miroslav Cyrus at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 5–8 Miroslav Cyrus Jan Kabelka has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:47What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cyrus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Cyrus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1394 vs Cyrus 1342
Kabelka
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 80% vs Cyrus 40%
Kabelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 50% vs Cyrus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka +3 · Cyrus -1
Kabelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyrus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrus form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 1.91 / Cyrus 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cyrus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13152656
Kabelka1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 49 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Cyrus1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 11 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it65% 11 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka4wins
AwayCyrus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCyrus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka60%3 of 5
AwayCyrus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka5Cyrus5n = 10split evenly
S2Kabelka4Cyrus6n = 10Cyrus took 6 of 10
S3Kabelka7Cyrus3n = 10Kabelka took 7 of 10
S4Kabelka1Cyrus5n = 6Cyrus took 5 of 6
S5Kabelka1Cyrus2n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaCyrusK − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.437.4−3.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 269 vs 87 / 19248.3%45.3%130 / 269 vs 87 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrusKabelka 1.91/Cyrus 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cyrus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 10 · 18:05J. Kabelka371511113M. Cyrus2613670
WAug 6 · 21:20J. Kabelka47101511113M. Cyrus321213521
WAug 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka45125116113M. Cyrus42101151152
WAug 5 · 20:05J. Kabelka331111113M. Cyrus217590
LJul 5 · 18:35J. Kabelka2578100M. Cyrus341111123
LJun 9 · 19:35J. Kabelka3911311772M. Cyrus50811911113
LMay 12 · 18:35J. Kabelka411213971M. Cyrus47141111113
LApr 3 · 16:35J. Kabelka115330M. Cyrus331111113
LMar 19 · 19:05J. Kabelka4011811372M. Cyrus48611911113
LMar 1 · 19:35J. Kabelka26731151M. Cyrus4111118113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133
M. Cyrus10
WSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 16 · 21:45L. Vosyka1.4411611113M. Cyrus2.63711881WSep 16 · 20:35M. Cyrus2.0016811113R. Jonas1.731411891WSep 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka1.5061111182M. Cyrus2.50111178113LSep 16 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.5311118113M. Cyrus2.38571171LSep 14 · 21:05M. Cyrus2.00331191R. Jonas1.7311117113LSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440WSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113LSep 14 · 18:35M. Cyrus1.916760M. Rojka1.801111113WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282
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