TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131503
Played Sep 14Finished
Miroslav Cyrus
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311311117911––
Roman Jonas
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMiroslav Cyrus above · Roman Jonas below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 66 set 4, 9-11
66 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cyrus 3–1 Roman Jonas Roman Jonas has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Cyrus beat Jonas 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jonas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jonas form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrus 2.00 / Jonas 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jonas)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13131503
Cyrus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Jonas1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 10 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCyrus3wins
AwayJonas1wins
Cyrus leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrus100%3 of 3
AwayJonasn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrus3Jonas1n = 4Cyrus took 3 of 4
S2Cyrus4Jonas0n = 4Cyrus took 4 of 4
S3Cyrus2Jonas2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricCyrusJonasC − JBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.828.2+8.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrusJonasBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 187 vs 33 / 7545.5%44%85 / 187 vs 33 / 75Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JonasCyrus 2.00/Jonas 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jonas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jonas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 14 · 19:35M. Cyrus4211119113R. Jonas32971151
WJun 10 · 21:10M. Cyrus341112113R. Jonas2381050
WJun 10 · 19:35M. Cyrus331111113R. Jonas166640
LMar 4 · 19:35M. Cyrus389111351R. Jonas4211515113
M. Cyrus10
LSep 14 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113M. Cyrus2.208440WSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113LSep 14 · 18:35M. Cyrus1.916760M. Rojka1.801111113WSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113
R. Jonas10
LSep 14 · 20:35M. Rojka1.57111198113R. Jonas2.2544111192LSep 14 · 19:35R. Jonas1.83971151M. Cyrus1.8311119113LSep 14 · 18:05T. Krcil1.4411911113R. Jonas2.63711591WAug 25 · 21:10J. Kabelka2.108370R. Jonas1.671111113LAug 25 · 20:35M. Flesar2.2511312113R. Jonas1.579111051LAug 25 · 19:35R. Jonas2.00511891L. Vosyka1.7311411113LAug 25 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.9171211123R. Jonas1.8011109101WJul 27 · 21:20R. Jonas1.611112113M. Chmelicek2.2091030LJul 27 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.501110119113R. Jonas1.5071261152WJul 27 · 19:35R. Jonas1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.918830
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