TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152648
Played Sep 18Finished
Jan Kabelka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112119119––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kabelka 21–21 Martin Chmelicek Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:45What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kabelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kabelka 1421 vs Chmelicek 1374
Kabelka
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kabelka 80% vs Chmelicek 20%
Kabelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kabelka 60% vs Chmelicek 30%
Kabelka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kabelka +4 · Chmelicek +1
Kabelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kabelka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKabelka 1.80 / Chmelicek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kabelka)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13152648
Kabelka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 31 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Chmelicek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 61 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKabelka7wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKabelka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKabelka100%5 of 5
AwayChmelicek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kabelka5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kabelka3Chmelicek7n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Kabelka8Chmelicek2n = 10Kabelka took 8 of 10
S4Kabelka5Chmelicek3n = 8Kabelka took 5 of 8
S5Kabelka3Chmelicek1n = 4Kabelka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKabelkaChmelicekK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.438.2+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKabelkaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 270 vs 238 / 51048.5%46.7%131 / 270 vs 238 / 510Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KabelkaKabelka 1.80/Chmelicek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kabelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 18:35J. Kabelka4011511133M. Chmelicek337114111
LAug 16 · 20:35J. Kabelka49891111102M. Chmelicek46111184123
WAug 13 · 21:05J. Kabelka48111187113M. Chmelicek3984111152
WAug 13 · 20:35J. Kabelka351111133M. Chmelicek2669110
WAug 12 · 20:35J. Kabelka561391211113M. Chmelicek46151110642
LAug 10 · 20:05J. Kabelka33681181M. Chmelicek4211119113
WAug 3 · 21:45J. Kabelka49116135143M. Chmelicek527111111122
LAug 3 · 18:35J. Kabelka226880M. Chmelicek331111113
WJul 30 · 18:35J. Kabelka3911611113M. Chmelicek33611881
WJul 29 · 18:35J. Kabelka43101111113M. Chmelicek32127941
J. Kabelka10
WSep 18 · 19:05J. Kabelka1.91119119113M. Cyrus1.8071171182WSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113LSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040LSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140WSep 16 · 17:14M. Chmelicek1.571112113L. Vana2.2581080LSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113LSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda1.5011711113M. Chmelicek2.50611651LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133
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