TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152652
Played Sep 18Finished
Miloslav Dvorak
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiloslav Dvorak above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Dvorak 9–6 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1312 vs Chmelicek 1362
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Chmelicek 0%
Dvorak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 30% vs Chmelicek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Chmelicek -5
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.38 / Chmelicek 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13152652
Dvorak2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 5 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Chmelicek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 62 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it68% 50 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak5wins
AwayChmelicek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak75%3 of 4
AwayChmelicek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak6Chmelicek4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak6Chmelicek4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak5Chmelicek3n = 8Dvorak took 5 of 8
S5Dvorak1Chmelicek3n = 4Chmelicek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakChmelicekD − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.0−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 116 vs 237 / 50939.7%46.6%46 / 116 vs 237 / 509Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekDvorak 2.38/Chmelicek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak4681211782M. Chmelicek521110911113
WJul 23 · 18:05M. Dvorak331111113M. Chmelicek226970
WJul 22 · 21:23M. Dvorak4111811113M. Chmelicek26711711
LJul 22 · 18:05M. Dvorak30771151M. Chmelicek4211119113
LJul 17 · 19:35M. Dvorak4411146672M. Chmelicek516121111113
LMar 28 · 22:15M. Dvorak2274110M. Chmelicek351111133
LMar 28 · 21:35M. Dvorak4781181192M. Chmelicek49117119113
WMar 14 · 14:15M. Dvorak45481111113M. Chmelicek4811119892
WMar 14 · 13:05M. Dvorak4261114113M. Chmelicek331151251
WJan 16 · 22:10M. Dvorak3911116113M. Chmelicek32841191
M. Dvorak10
LSep 18 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.91116135113M. Dvorak1.80811111172LSep 18 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.7318118113M. Dvorak2.001671151WJul 25 · 21:10R. Hruby1.73141199102M. Dvorak2.001291111123LJul 25 · 20:35R. Hruby2.1011118113M. Dvorak1.67561161LJul 25 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.7561130R. Vavricka1.401113113LJul 25 · 18:05D. Hons1.401111113M. Dvorak2.756390LJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.00111485113M. Dvorak1.73912111132LJul 23 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.003590M. Flesar1.731111113WJul 23 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.806970M. Dvorak1.911111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113LSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040LSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140WSep 16 · 17:14M. Chmelicek1.571112113L. Vana2.2581080LSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113WJul 23 · 21:20M. Dvorak1.8081211782M. Chmelicek1.911110911113LJul 23 · 18:05M. Chmelicek1.806970M. Dvorak1.911111113
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