TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158377
Played Sep 19Finished
David Hons
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119114811811118
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held David Hons at 71.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 10–6 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Hons
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1630 vs Chmelicek 1370
Hons
Correct
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Chmelicek 40%
Hons
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 70% vs Chmelicek 30%
Hons
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +3 · Chmelicek +1
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.40 / Chmelicek 2.75
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Hons)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13158377
Hons1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 56 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Chmelicek2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 61 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons6wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons80%4 of 5
AwayChmelicek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Hons8Chmelicek2n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Hons5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Hons3Chmelicek2n = 5Hons took 3 of 5
S5Hons1Chmelicek2n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsChmelicekH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.834.2+2.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 506 vs 239 / 51250.8%46.7%257 / 506 vs 239 / 512Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.40/Chmelicek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons391112163M. Chmelicek32810140
WSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons43111110113M. Chmelicek28711281
WSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek249690
LAug 7 · 19:35D. Hons3911116652M. Chmelicek47681111113
WJul 18 · 18:05D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek198830
WJul 18 · 10:05D. Hons3941113113M. Chmelicek291121151
WJun 30 · 15:35D. Hons50811146113M. Chmelicek45116121152
LJun 21 · 18:35D. Hons268990M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 21:35D. Hons185850M. Chmelicek331111113
LJun 17 · 19:05D. Hons48711101192M. Chmelicek52119129113
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140LSep 16 · 13:40D. Hons2.20117871R. Vosyka1.6181111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990WSep 18 · 21:18M. Chmelicek1.44111111113M. Dvorak2.63135391LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113LSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040LSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140WSep 16 · 17:14M. Chmelicek1.571112113L. Vana2.2581080
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.