TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158371
Played Sep 19Finished
Tomas Motacek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210611115911411
David Hons
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held David Hons at 54.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 1–1 David Hons Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1479 vs Hons 1634
Hons
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 60% vs Hons 80%
Hons
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 60% vs Hons 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek +1 · Hons +4
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 2.00 / Hons 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Hons)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13158371
Motacek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog58% won 11 of 19
Hons1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 56 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMotacek1wins
AwayHons1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMotacekHonsM − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.532.5+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime23 / 41 vs 258 / 50756.1%50.9%23 / 41 vs 258 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsMotacek 2.00/Hons 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek361196101D. Hons4061111123
WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek3911611113D. Hons25611621
T. Motacek10
WSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.7511124542T. Motacek1.405101111113WSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621LSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642WSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113LSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 15:35T. Motacek1.911156101L. Vosyka1.8061111123WSep 17 · 14:05T. Krcil2.00117121182T. Motacek1.73811147113
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons1.441112163M. Chmelicek2.63810140
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