TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158367
Played Sep 19Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111156111618––
David Hons
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 16-18
Point 87 set 4, 16-18 — our read held David Hons at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 4–3 David Hons David Hons has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1488 vs Hons 1641
Hons
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 20% vs Hons 100%
Hons
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 50% vs Hons 80%
Hons
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin +1 · Hons +5
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.83 / Hons 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hons)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13158367
Martin1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Hons1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMartin4wins
AwayHons3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMartin leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHons60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin2Hons5n = 7Hons took 5 of 7
S2Martin5Hons2n = 7Martin took 5 of 7
S3Martin5Hons2n = 7Martin took 5 of 7
S4Martin4Hons2n = 6Martin took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMartinHonsM − HBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.135.4+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 83 vs 259 / 50850.6%51%42 / 83 vs 259 / 508Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsMartin 1.83/Hons 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin4559121182D. Hons481111105113
WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin3961111113D. Hons28118361
LSep 9 · 20:35J. Martin321111461D. Hons3813311113
WAug 8 · 10:35J. Martin4111118113D. Hons29921171
WAug 8 · 06:35J. Martin4291111113D. Hons35116991
WAug 7 · 21:09J. Martin341112113D. Hons2581070
LAug 7 · 20:05J. Martin341171241D. Hons45131110113
J. Martin10
WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.4013115862J. Martin2.751161111113
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113WSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113LSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361
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