TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
David Hons
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911411––––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 1-7
Point 47 set 3, 1-7 — our read held David Hons at 54.0%
47 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H David Hons 6–18 Jan Lovl David Hons has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Lovl
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1618 vs Lovl 1532
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Lovl 20%
Hons
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 80% vs Lovl 50%
Hons
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -1 · Lovl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 2.00 / Lovl 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lovl)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13164653
Hons2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 60 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Lovl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 67 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons3wins
AwayLovl7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons50%2 of 4
AwayLovl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S2Hons7Lovl3n = 10Hons took 7 of 10
S3Hons3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S4Hons5Lovl3n = 8Hons took 5 of 8
S5Hons0Lovl4n = 4Lovl took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsLovlH − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.7−3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 512 vs 179 / 34751.2%51.6%262 / 512 vs 179 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlHons 2.00/Lovl 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons4291111113J. Lovl31116681
LAug 23 · 16:35D. Hons44111111472J. Lovl48761311113
LAug 2 · 15:35D. Hons187740J. Lovl331111113
LAug 1 · 12:05D. Hons3912661142J. Lovl521011119113
LJul 16 · 11:35D. Hons4077111142J. Lovl49111188113
LJun 30 · 17:40D. Hons398118121J. Lovl4011411143
WJun 30 · 16:05D. Hons3911116113J. Lovl33691171
LJun 27 · 08:35D. Hons5491371692J. Lovl5811111114113
WJun 22 · 10:05D. Hons371411123J. Lovl31129100
LJun 12 · 17:10D. Hons33811591J. Lovl4211911113
D. Hons10
LSep 20 · 15:05D. Hons2.2510111181R. Fnukal1.5712139113WSep 20 · 14:05D. Hons1.73311118123J. Martin2.00115711102WSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons1.80119511143T. Motacek1.91711118122WSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952
J. Lovl10
WSep 20 · 15:35J. Martin2.7562100J. Lovl1.401111123LSep 20 · 14:35J. Lovl2.501111612132R. Fnukal1.50881114153LSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251LSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681WSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080LSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113WSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272WSep 13 · 15:05J. Lovl1.441111153K. Lahodny2.6378130WSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101
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