TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13161591
Played Sep 19Finished
David Hons
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1179115111181412
Tomas Motacek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 99 set 5, 14-12 — our read held David Hons at 59.2%
99 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 2–1 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Hons beat Motacek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1648 vs Motacek 1480
Hons
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 100% vs Motacek 60%
Hons
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 80% vs Motacek 50%
Hons
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +6 · Motacek +1
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.80 / Motacek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hons)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13161591
Hons1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 56 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 41 of 53
Motacek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog58% won 11 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHons2wins
AwayMotacek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHons leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHonsn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMotacek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons0Motacek3n = 3Motacek took 3 of 3
S2Hons3Motacek0n = 3Hons took 3 of 3
S3Hons1Motacek2n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
S4Hons2Motacek1n = 3Hons took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHonsMotacekH − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match37.739.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 509 vs 24 / 4351.1%55.8%260 / 509 vs 24 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.80/Motacek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 19 · 19:35D. Hons481011511113T. Motacek4212611942
WSep 18 · 17:40D. Hons4061111123T. Motacek361196101
LSep 18 · 15:35D. Hons25611621T. Motacek3911611113
D. Hons10
WSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113LSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621
T. Motacek10
WSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.7511124542T. Motacek1.405101111113LSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621LSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642WSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113LSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 15:35T. Motacek1.911156101L. Vosyka1.8061111123
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