TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811114811––
Radomir Benesz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadomir Benesz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Radomir Benesz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Radomir Benesz at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 22–15 Radomir Benesz Radomir Benesz has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:13What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vanous
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Vanous
Wrong
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1338 vs Benesz 1301
Vanous
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 40% vs Benesz 80%
Benesz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 40% vs Benesz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous +1 · Benesz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vanous) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benesz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 1.61 / Benesz 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Vanous)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13163359
Vanous1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 27 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Benesz2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 30 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous7wins
AwayBenesz3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVanous leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous85.7%6 of 7
AwayBenesz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous7Benesz3n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S2Vanous5Benesz5n = 10split evenly
S3Vanous8Benesz2n = 10Vanous took 8 of 10
S4Vanous4Benesz3n = 7Vanous took 4 of 7
S5Vanous2Benesz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousBeneszV − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.835.9+4.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousBeneszBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 302 vs 80 / 21444%37.4%133 / 302 vs 80 / 214Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanousVanous 1.61/Benesz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Vanous · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benesz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous44111111113R. Benesz32813561
WJun 18 · 19:10J. Vanous47111339113R. Benesz49711111192
WJun 16 · 19:15J. Vanous331111113R. Benesz147430
LJun 12 · 18:40J. Vanous52138111282R. Benesz551111814113
LJun 3 · 19:10J. Vanous48108111182R. Benesz48121177113
WMay 27 · 18:45J. Vanous3711114113R. Benesz31691151
LMay 17 · 21:25J. Vanous346711101R. Benesz4111117123
WMay 17 · 17:45J. Vanous47771111113R. Benesz4011115672
WMay 11 · 19:15J. Vanous331111113R. Benesz248790
WMay 5 · 20:40J. Vanous331111113R. Benesz259970
J. Vanous10
LSep 20 · 18:40J. Vanous1.50115571P. Jokiel2.5031111113WSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113LSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor1.53411711113J. Vanous2.3811711752LSep 19 · 19:15J. Vanous2.0011611862M. Janik1.73911911113LSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370WSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133LSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113
R. Benesz10
LSep 17 · 21:10R. Benesz2.102490T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 17 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8371411113M. Dolezal1.831112251WSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113WSep 17 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.531131091R. Benesz2.3871112113WSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123LSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113LSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121LSep 9 · 16:45R. Benesz1.733960L. Zustina1.981111113LSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172
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