TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145246
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1173111012911––
Radomir Benesz
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Radomir Benesz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 61.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 13–9 Radomir Benesz Radomir Benesz has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Ogrocki
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1335 vs Benesz 1307
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Benesz 20%
Ogrocki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 30% vs Benesz 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Benesz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benesz form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.53 / Benesz 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Ogrocki)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13145246
Ogrocki1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 54 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 36 of 52
Benesz2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki6wins
AwayBenesz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki100%4 of 4
AwayBenesz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki4Benesz6n = 10Benesz took 6 of 10
S2Ogrocki7Benesz3n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S3Ogrocki5Benesz5n = 10split evenly
S4Ogrocki4Benesz3n = 7Ogrocki took 4 of 7
S5Ogrocki2Benesz1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiBeneszO − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.8+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiBeneszBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 475 vs 77 / 21046.3%36.7%220 / 475 vs 77 / 210Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.53/Benesz 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benesz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 15:10T. Ogrocki45121111113R. Benesz371091351
WJun 20 · 20:10T. Ogrocki371511113R. Benesz2413560
LJun 18 · 20:10T. Ogrocki30411871R. Benesz3611311113
WJun 16 · 20:15T. Ogrocki559111113113R. Benesz47111351172
WJun 11 · 20:45T. Ogrocki45111111123R. Benesz361376101
LJun 11 · 17:45T. Ogrocki32711681R. Benesz4211911113
LJun 5 · 20:39T. Ogrocki4051181152R. Benesz42113116113
WJun 5 · 20:10T. Ogrocki341112113R. Benesz2791080
WMay 24 · 18:40T. Ogrocki521181111113R. Benesz4451161392
LMay 17 · 19:15T. Ogrocki217860R. Benesz331111113
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113WSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113LSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113WSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 14 · 16:45K. Przeczek1.5711158113T. Ogrocki2.259131171LSep 14 · 16:15K. Przeczek1.611613113T. Ogrocki2.20141190LSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123LSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113
R. Benesz10
WSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113WSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123LSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113LSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121LSep 9 · 16:45R. Benesz1.733960L. Zustina1.981111113LSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 15:15O. Vaclahovsky1.53161211113R. Benesz2.381414481WSep 9 · 14:15R. Benesz2.0051211113L. Zustina1.731110971LSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Ogrocki
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R. Benesz
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