TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134515
Played Sep 15Finished
Radomir Benesz
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10129111311511––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadomir Benesz above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 58.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Radomir Benesz 9–12 Tomas Ogrocki Radomir Benesz has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benesz 1328 vs Ogrocki 1305
Benesz
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benesz 20% vs Ogrocki 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benesz 20% vs Ogrocki 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benesz -4 · Ogrocki +1
Benesz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenesz 2.20 / Ogrocki 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Ogrocki)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13134515
Benesz2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Ogrocki1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 53 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenesz4wins
AwayOgrocki6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesz66.7%4 of 6
AwayOgrocki100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benesz6Ogrocki4n = 10Benesz took 6 of 10
S2Benesz3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S3Benesz5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Benesz4Ogrocki3n = 7Benesz took 4 of 7
S5Benesz1Ogrocki3n = 4Ogrocki took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBeneszOgrockiB − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.939.0−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeneszOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 207 vs 218 / 47236.7%46.2%76 / 207 vs 218 / 472Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiBenesz 2.20/Ogrocki 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 20 · 20:10R. Benesz2413560T. Ogrocki371511113
WJun 18 · 20:10R. Benesz3611311113T. Ogrocki30411871
LJun 16 · 20:15R. Benesz47111351172T. Ogrocki559111113113
LJun 11 · 20:45R. Benesz361376101T. Ogrocki45111111123
WJun 11 · 17:45R. Benesz4211911113T. Ogrocki32711681
WJun 5 · 20:39R. Benesz42113116113T. Ogrocki4051181152
LJun 5 · 20:10R. Benesz2791080T. Ogrocki341112113
LMay 24 · 18:40R. Benesz4451161392T. Ogrocki521181111113
WMay 17 · 19:15R. Benesz331111113T. Ogrocki217860
LMay 11 · 20:45R. Benesz4889111192T. Ogrocki44111183113
R. Benesz10
LSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121LSep 9 · 16:45R. Benesz1.733960L. Zustina1.981111113LSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 15:15O. Vaclahovsky1.53161211113R. Benesz2.381414481WSep 9 · 14:15R. Benesz2.0051211113L. Zustina1.731110971LSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 14 · 16:45K. Przeczek1.5711158113T. Ogrocki2.259131171LSep 14 · 16:15K. Przeczek1.611613113T. Ogrocki2.20141190LSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123LSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113LSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113LSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182
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