TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134377
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113118119117––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 81 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 5–3 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Lorenc
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1517 vs Ogrocki 1305
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 80% vs Ogrocki 40%
Lorenc
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 80% vs Ogrocki 30%
Lorenc
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +4 · Ogrocki +2
Lorenc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.80 / Ogrocki 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lorenc)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13134377
Lorenc1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Ogrocki1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 59 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLorenc5wins
AwayOgrocki3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLorenc leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc83.3%5 of 6
AwayOgrockin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc6Ogrocki2n = 8Lorenc took 6 of 8
S2Lorenc5Ogrocki3n = 8Lorenc took 5 of 8
S3Lorenc4Ogrocki4n = 8split evenly
S4Lorenc2Ogrocki2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLorencOgrockiL − OBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.935.1+1.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 142 vs 219 / 47345.1%46.3%64 / 142 vs 219 / 473Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.80/Ogrocki 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 14 · 15:45M. Lorenc45211131182T. Ogrocki51115159113
WJul 17 · 20:40M. Lorenc341111123T. Ogrocki2459100
LJul 17 · 20:10M. Lorenc2669110T. Ogrocki351111133
WJun 27 · 09:40M. Lorenc341111123T. Ogrocki2477100
WJun 4 · 10:15M. Lorenc4111118113T. Ogrocki32761181
WMay 16 · 14:15M. Lorenc341111123T. Ogrocki2679100
WMar 26 · 17:45M. Lorenc49117128113T. Ogrocki49811101192
LMar 26 · 16:10M. Lorenc32116781T. Ogrocki4071111113
M. Lorenc10
WSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121WSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113
T. Ogrocki10
WSep 15 · 15:10R. Benesz2.201091351T. Ogrocki1.61121111113WSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 14 · 16:45K. Przeczek1.5711158113T. Ogrocki2.259131171LSep 14 · 16:15K. Przeczek1.611613113T. Ogrocki2.20141190LSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123LSep 14 · 13:45A. Drozd1.57811412113T. Ogrocki2.25114111052LSep 13 · 08:45T. Ogrocki1.5371161152R. Jancak2.38117115113LSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113LSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 05:45T. Ogrocki1.501111119113R. Jancak2.5089131182
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