TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103388
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1517611511––––
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 65 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 1–0 Lukas Zustina Lukas Zustina has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1486 vs Zustina 1342
Lorenc
Wrong
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 80% vs Zustina 40%
Lorenc
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 70% vs Zustina 50%
Lorenc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +1 · Zustina -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zustina form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.80 / Zustina 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13103388
Lorenc1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 21 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Zustina1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 11 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLorenc1wins
AwayZustina0wins
Lorenc leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLorencZustinaL − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.022.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 137 vs 47 / 9943.8%47.5%60 / 137 vs 47 / 99Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.80/Zustina 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zustina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 9 · 10:45M. Lorenc—1311113L. Zustina—11380
M. Lorenc10
WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120
L. Zustina10
LSep 9 · 14:15R. Benesz1.8351211113L. Zustina1.831110971WSep 9 · 12:44L. Zustina2.1061411133J. Sevecek1.6711129111WSep 9 · 11:45J. Sevecek1.6761191472L. Zustina2.101171112113LSep 9 · 11:15L. Jr2.0012911113L. Zustina1.731011991LSep 9 · 10:15L. Zustina1.8312990J. Sindler1.831411113WSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz2.1011111111113L. Zustina1.6713881382WSep 3 · 14:15L. Zustina1.7312118113L. Jr2.001091131WSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172
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