TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134374
Played Sep 15Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117113119––
Petr Chlad
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Petr Chlad below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 2–1 Petr Chlad Petr Chlad has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1508 vs Chlad 1430
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 80% vs Chlad 20%
Lorenc
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 80% vs Chlad 40%
Lorenc
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +3 · Chlad -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlad form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.80 / Chlad 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13134374
Lorenc1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Chlad1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 25 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back33% 16 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLorenc2wins
AwayChlad1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderLorenc leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc2Chlad1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S2Lorenc1Chlad2n = 3Chlad took 2 of 3
S3Lorenc3Chlad0n = 3Lorenc took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLorencChladL − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.741.0+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencChladBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 141 vs 131 / 27144.7%48.3%63 / 141 vs 131 / 271Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.80/Chlad 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 24 · 15:40M. Lorenc491141112113P. Chlad4781171472
WJun 11 · 12:45M. Lorenc341112113P. Chlad2131080
LJun 11 · 09:45M. Lorenc51610151192P. Chlad551112138113
M. Lorenc10
WSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121WSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113
P. Chlad10
LSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192LSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171WSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113WSep 2 · 07:40P. Chlad2.0041111113J. Sindler1.73117891LSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LAug 29 · 16:45P. Chlad1.83961181R. Jancak1.8311115113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lorenc
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P. Chlad
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