TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13105211
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210911117911118
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 4–2 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Oldrich Vaclahovsky has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:43What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Lorenc
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1474 vs Vaclahovsky 1444
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 60% vs Vaclahovsky 100%
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 60% vs Vaclahovsky 90%
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +1 · Vaclahovsky +5
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclahovsky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.85 / Vaclahovsky 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13105211
Lorenc1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Vaclahovsky1.85
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLorenc4wins
AwayVaclahovsky2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLorenc leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc100%4 of 4
AwayVaclahovskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc4Vaclahovsky2n = 6Lorenc took 4 of 6
S2Lorenc2Vaclahovsky4n = 6Vaclahovsky took 4 of 6
S3Lorenc4Vaclahovsky2n = 6Lorenc took 4 of 6
S4Lorenc3Vaclahovsky3n = 6split evenly
S5Lorenc2Vaclahovsky1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricLorencVaclahovskyL − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match45.341.5+3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 139 vs 119 / 25243.9%47.2%61 / 139 vs 119 / 252Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.85/Vaclahovsky 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc—1191211123O. Vaclahovsky—511149102
LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc—1011991O. Vaclahovsky—12711113
WJul 4 · 10:10M. Lorenc—11411113O. Vaclahovsky—711861
WJun 27 · 12:10M. Lorenc—11911113O. Vaclahovsky—511741
WJun 25 · 10:10M. Lorenc—1113119123O. Vaclahovsky—915611102
LJun 19 · 10:45M. Lorenc—71111952O. Vaclahovsky—119711113
M. Lorenc10
WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113
O. Vaclahovsky10
WSep 9 · 16:15L. Zustina1.9191150O. Vaclahovsky1.801113113WSep 9 · 15:15O. Vaclahovsky1.53161211113R. Benesz2.381414481LSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102WSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky1.6871311123L. Jr1.9911119101WSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 10:45O. Vaclahovsky2.2511118113T. Slivka1.57541131WSep 7 · 09:45O. Vaclahovsky1.80118119133P. Chvojka1.91411811112LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113
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