TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158365
Played Sep 19Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411117711117115
Jiri Vanous
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Jiri Vanous below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 85 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 63.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 6–4 Jiri Vanous Jiri Vanous has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:37What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Skvor
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1430 vs Vanous 1315
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 20% vs Vanous 40%
Vanous
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 50% vs Vanous 30%
Skvor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor -3 · Vanous -2
Skvor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.53 / Vanous 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Skvor)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13158365
Skvor1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 49 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it65% 33 of 51
Vanous2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor6wins
AwayVanous4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor100%3 of 3
AwayVanous57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor3Vanous7n = 10Vanous took 7 of 10
S2Skvor6Vanous4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S3Skvor5Vanous5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvor5Vanous3n = 8Skvor took 5 of 8
S5Skvor3Vanous1n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorVanousS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.9+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorVanousBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 169 vs 133 / 30250.9%44%86 / 169 vs 133 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.53/Vanous 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor45111131192J. Vanous45135115113
WSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor44411711113J. Vanous4111711752
WSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor3812114113J. Vanous391091191
LSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor227690J. Vanous331111113
WAug 30 · 19:15O. Skvor53691611113J. Vanous49111114672
WAug 7 · 21:20O. Skvor471111113113J. Vanous4371361162
WAug 7 · 20:15O. Skvor4281112113J. Vanous311171031
LMay 15 · 18:15O. Skvor431811681J. Vanous4720511113
WApr 18 · 21:13O. Skvor331111113J. Vanous175570
LApr 18 · 18:09O. Skvor409811121J. Vanous4411118143
O. Skvor10
LSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113LSep 19 · 18:45K. Zeman2.10101111113O. Skvor1.67129661LSep 19 · 18:15M. Janik2.001111113O. Skvor1.737390LSep 19 · 16:45O. Skvor2.105930T. Ogrocki1.671111113WSep 19 · 16:15O. Skvor1.5391111113T. Ogrocki2.38119951LSep 19 · 14:45A. Drozd2.101211113O. Skvor1.6710980LSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061WSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113
J. Vanous10
WSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113LSep 19 · 19:15J. Vanous2.0011611862M. Janik1.73911911113LSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370WSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133LSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113WSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191
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