TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158372
Played Sep 19Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119611119811611
Michal Janik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Janik to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Janik at 60.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 3–5 Michal Janik Jiri Vanous has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Janik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Janik
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1324 vs Janik 1438
Janik
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 40% vs Janik 60%
Janik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 40% vs Janik 70%
Janik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous -1 · Janik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Janik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 2.00 / Janik 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Janik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13158372
Vanous2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Janik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite43% won 17 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it56% 10 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVanous3wins
AwayJanik5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderJanik leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous33.3%2 of 6
AwayJanikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous6Janik2n = 8Vanous took 6 of 8
S2Vanous4Janik4n = 8split evenly
S3Vanous4Janik4n = 8split evenly
S4Vanous1Janik6n = 7Janik took 6 of 7
S5Vanous1Janik2n = 3Janik took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVanousJanikV − JBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.940.1+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 299 vs 125 / 27944.2%44.8%132 / 299 vs 125 / 279Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanikVanous 2.00/Janik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Janik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Janik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous4011910101M. Janik3831112123
WSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous48611119113M. Janik4411891152
LApr 24 · 21:20J. Vanous351191321M. Janik4691115113
LApr 24 · 19:45J. Vanous361210681M. Janik44101211113
LApr 15 · 21:25J. Vanous4511711882M. Janik48811711113
LApr 15 · 19:45J. Vanous47111311752M. Janik551311911113
WApr 8 · 20:50J. Vanous43111110113M. Janik28481241
WApr 8 · 19:10J. Vanous331111113M. Janik189360
J. Vanous10
WSep 19 · 20:45O. Skvor1.53111131192J. Vanous2.38135115113LSep 19 · 20:15O. Skvor1.53411711113J. Vanous2.3811711752LSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370WSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133LSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113WSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191
M. Janik10
LSep 19 · 19:45K. Zeman2.101051111123M. Janik1.67121179102WSep 19 · 18:15M. Janik2.001111113O. Skvor1.737390LSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113LSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772WSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132
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