TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158369
Played Sep 19Finished
Karel Zeman
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10125111171191210
Michal Janik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Zeman above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-10
Point 94 set 5, 8-10 — our read held Karel Zeman at 54.0%
94 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Karel Zeman 5–3 Michal Janik Michal Janik has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Janik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Zeman
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1465 vs Janik 1451
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Janik 60%
Zeman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 60% vs Janik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +3 · Janik +2
Zeman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Janik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 2.10 / Janik 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Janik)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13158369
Zeman2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 29 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back39% 10 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Janik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite43% won 17 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it56% 10 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZeman5wins
AwayJanik3wins
5 of 8 to a deciderZeman leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman60%3 of 5
AwayJanik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman5Janik3n = 8Zeman took 5 of 8
S2Zeman4Janik4n = 8split evenly
S3Zeman3Janik5n = 8Janik took 5 of 8
S4Zeman3Janik4n = 7Janik took 4 of 7
S5Zeman4Janik1n = 5Zeman took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricZemanJanikZ − JBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match41.842.2−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 321 vs 126 / 28156.1%44.8%180 / 321 vs 126 / 281Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanikZeman 2.10/Janik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Janik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 19:45K. Zeman491051111123M. Janik49121179102
LAug 27 · 20:38K. Zeman35711981M. Janik4111811113
WAug 27 · 18:10K. Zeman45111148113M. Janik4569111182
LAug 23 · 07:10K. Zeman4011931162M. Janik40511112113
LJun 6 · 10:15K. Zeman28128441M. Janik43101111113
WJun 6 · 09:25K. Zeman529111011113M. Janik4611712882
WJun 6 · 06:45K. Zeman341211113M. Janik2410590
WApr 8 · 14:10K. Zeman51149116113M. Janik50121181182
K. Zeman10
WSep 19 · 18:45K. Zeman2.10101111113O. Skvor1.67129661WSep 19 · 17:45K. Zeman1.531112113J. Vanous2.3861090WSep 16 · 21:05O. Kus2.046890K. Zeman1.661111113LSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371WSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113WSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113
M. Janik10
WSep 19 · 19:15J. Vanous2.0011611862M. Janik1.73911911113WSep 19 · 18:15M. Janik2.001111113O. Skvor1.737390LSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik2.259780A. Drozd1.571111113WSep 19 · 15:45A. Drozd1.57119591M. Janik2.2581111113LSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.83661111113M. Janik1.8311117772WSep 19 · 14:15M. Janik2.1011816113O. Skvor1.676111491WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132
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