TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139362
Played Sep 16Finished
Karel Zeman
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115811411––
Ondrej Kus
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Zeman above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Karel Zeman at 61.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Karel Zeman 7–5 Ondrej Kus Ondrej Kus has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1449 vs Kus 1389
Zeman
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 60% vs Kus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 50% vs Kus 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +2 · Kus +3
Kus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.53 / Kus 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Zeman)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13139362
Zeman1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 67 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 50 of 67
Kus2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman6wins
AwayKus4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman80%4 of 5
AwayKus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman5Kus5n = 10split evenly
S2Zeman6Kus4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S3Zeman8Kus2n = 10Zeman took 8 of 10
S4Zeman3Kus3n = 6split evenly
S5Zeman1Kus2n = 3Kus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanKusZ − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.133.1+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanKusBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 316 vs 263 / 53055.7%49.6%176 / 316 vs 263 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.53/Kus 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman205960O. Kus331111113
WSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman4181111113O. Kus36118891
WSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman4071111113O. Kus32118761
WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman331111113O. Kus207670
LSep 1 · 19:40K. Zeman356101181O. Kus3811124113
LAug 19 · 19:40K. Zeman3961111472O. Kus45116611113
WAug 17 · 20:45K. Zeman361411113O. Kus2212370
LAug 17 · 18:15K. Zeman4111511772O. Kus48611911113
WAug 11 · 20:40K. Zeman331111113O. Kus198470
WAug 11 · 18:15K. Zeman43116411113O. Kus3861111642
K. Zeman10
WSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371WSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113WSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113LSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113LSep 13 · 17:15K. Zeman1.808116101O. Skvor1.9011911123WSep 13 · 16:15O. Skvor1.736960K. Zeman2.001111113WSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 13:45F. Theodor2.101212811113K. Zeman1.67101411572
O. Kus10
WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113WSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113
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