TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124432
Played Sep 13Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211611411––––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:32 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 45 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 63.4%
45 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 1–5 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Kus has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Skvor beat Kus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:32What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (55%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Skvor
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1413 vs Skvor 1405
Kus
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 60% vs Skvor 40%
Kus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 30% vs Skvor 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus +2 · Skvor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.05 / Skvor 1.70
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Skvor)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13124432
Kus2.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Skvor1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 42 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it64% 29 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKus1wins
AwaySkvor5wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSkvor leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus2Skvor4n = 6Skvor took 4 of 6
S2Kus1Skvor5n = 6Skvor took 5 of 6
S3Kus4Skvor2n = 6Kus took 4 of 6
S4Kus2Skvor2n = 4split evenly
S5Kus0Skvor3n = 3Skvor took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKusSkvorK − SBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.541.5−6.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 519 vs 74 / 14849.7%50%258 / 519 vs 74 / 148Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorKus 2.05/Skvor 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus4011711742O. Skvor42311611113
LAug 23 · 13:06O. Kus44113111182O. Skvor52131189113
WAug 23 · 10:40O. Kus43101111113O. Skvor36129961
LJun 20 · 15:10O. Kus4313511952O. Skvor521111811113
LMay 15 · 15:45O. Kus2371060O. Skvor341112113
LApr 18 · 13:40O. Kus206590O. Skvor331111113
O. Kus10
WSep 13 · 13:10O. Kus2.15811116113O. Skvor1.6011921172WSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113
O. Skvor10
WSep 13 · 14:45F. Theodor1.835870O. Skvor1.831111113LSep 13 · 13:10O. Kus2.15811116113O. Skvor1.6011921172WSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113LSep 11 · 20:55O. Skvor1.61117871T. Ogrocki2.2081111113LSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171WSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971LSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572
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