TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124770
Played Sep 13Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
2.15
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119112611117
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 60.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 1–5 Ondrej Skvor Ondrej Kus has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Skvor beat Kus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Skvor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Skvor
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1373 vs Skvor 1445
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 60% vs Skvor 40%
Kus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 30% vs Skvor 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus +2 · Skvor +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 2.15 / Skvor 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Skvor)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13124770
Kus2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Skvor1.60
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 42 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it64% 29 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKus1wins
AwaySkvor5wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSkvor leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus2Skvor4n = 6Skvor took 4 of 6
S2Kus1Skvor5n = 6Skvor took 5 of 6
S3Kus4Skvor2n = 6Kus took 4 of 6
S4Kus2Skvor2n = 4split evenly
S5Kus0Skvor3n = 3Skvor took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKusSkvorK − SBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.541.5−6.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 519 vs 74 / 14849.7%50%258 / 519 vs 74 / 148Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorKus 2.15/Skvor 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus4011711742O. Skvor42311611113
LAug 23 · 13:06O. Kus44113111182O. Skvor52131189113
WAug 23 · 10:40O. Kus43101111113O. Skvor36129961
LJun 20 · 15:10O. Kus4313511952O. Skvor521111811113
LMay 15 · 15:45O. Kus2371060O. Skvor341112113
LApr 18 · 13:40O. Kus206590O. Skvor331111113
O. Kus10
WSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133LSep 10 · 09:40T. Kindl1.5011118113O. Kus2.50981191LSep 3 · 20:48V. Molin1.801112113O. Kus1.9181060LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113LSep 3 · 18:45O. Kus1.839780V. Molin1.831111113
O. Skvor10
WSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 10:45A. Drozd1.50118114123O. Skvor2.50811811102WSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113LSep 11 · 20:55O. Skvor1.61117871T. Ogrocki2.2081111113LSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171WSep 11 · 18:10O. Skvor2.1071111113T. Ogrocki1.67116971LSep 11 · 16:40J. Volny1.671111713113O. Skvor2.1085111572LSep 11 · 16:10A. Drozd1.911113113O. Skvor1.8061190LSep 11 · 15:10O. Skvor2.00512101182J. Volny1.731110126113
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