TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139346
Played Sep 16Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711119116––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kus 21–15 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Kus
Correct
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kus 1364 vs Jokiel 1361
Kus
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kus 20% vs Jokiel 60%
Jokiel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kus 40% vs Jokiel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kus +1 · Jokiel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 1.80 / Jokiel 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13139346
Kus1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 37 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it57% 24 of 42
Jokiel1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus6wins
AwayJokiel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus40%2 of 5
AwayJokiel20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S2Kus5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S3Kus6Jokiel4n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S4Kus6Jokiel1n = 7Kus took 6 of 7
S5Kus1Jokiel2n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusJokielK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.135.0+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 528 vs 203 / 43349.4%46.9%261 / 528 vs 203 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusKus 1.80/Jokiel 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 19:15O. Kus4711971192P. Jokiel50911118113
WSep 13 · 11:15O. Kus4291111113P. Jokiel35119781
LAug 27 · 13:40O. Kus225980P. Jokiel331111113
LAug 17 · 15:45O. Kus4311691162P. Jokiel45511117113
WJul 26 · 17:40O. Kus3741111113P. Jokiel28115841
WJul 6 · 13:10O. Kus44111111113P. Jokiel31131981
WJul 6 · 11:15O. Kus463101111113P. Jokiel3911124572
WJul 5 · 10:10O. Kus331111113P. Jokiel227780
WJul 3 · 17:15O. Kus351111133P. Jokiel2467110
LJul 3 · 15:45O. Kus32125961P. Jokiel43101111113
O. Kus10
WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 19:10J. Vanous1.8064110O. Kus1.911111133WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113WSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371LSep 14 · 21:18O. Skvor1.5791312113P. Jokiel2.2511111061LSep 14 · 20:15O. Skvor1.50119811113P. Jokiel2.5091111642WSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192WSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113WSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282LSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113
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