TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125693
Played Sep 13Finished
Ondrej Kus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115511411711––
Filip Theodor
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingOndrej Kus above · Filip Theodor below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 63 set 4, 7-11
63 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Kus 6–6 Filip Theodor Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kus beat Theodor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Theodor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKus 1.80 / Theodor 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Theodor)+5.4pp
TT Cup · #13125693
Kus1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 37 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it61% 25 of 41
Theodor1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 22 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKus4wins
AwayTheodor6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTheodor leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKus100%3 of 3
AwayTheodor85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kus3Theodor7n = 10Theodor took 7 of 10
S2Kus6Theodor4n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S3Kus5Theodor5n = 10split evenly
S4Kus1Theodor4n = 5Theodor took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKusTheodorK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.135.3−2.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKusTheodorBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 524 vs 83 / 18049.8%46.1%261 / 524 vs 83 / 180Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorKus 1.80/Theodor 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 15:45O. Kus4291111113F. Theodor29115761
LSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus30671251F. Theodor43111110113
WAug 10 · 17:20O. Kus331111113F. Theodor185850
LAug 10 · 16:15O. Kus43101111652F. Theodor46129311113
LApr 12 · 20:10O. Kus177370F. Theodor331111113
LApr 9 · 20:45O. Kus2561090F. Theodor341112113
LApr 9 · 18:45O. Kus29813351F. Theodor44111111113
WFeb 24 · 16:45O. Kus341111123F. Theodor2789100
LJan 29 · 22:25O. Kus2989120F. Theodor361111143
WJan 29 · 19:15O. Kus49111179113F. Theodor4397111152
O. Kus10
WSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113WSep 13 · 13:10O. Kus2.15811116113O. Skvor1.6011921172WSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113LSep 10 · 12:43O. Kus2.508148101L. Dzida1.50111211123WSep 10 · 12:10L. Dzida1.3071171192O. Kus3.40115118113LSep 10 · 11:10O. Kus2.20511111112R. Solle1.61111187133
F. Theodor10
LSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 14:45F. Theodor1.835870O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 13 · 13:45F. Theodor2.101212811113K. Zeman1.67101411572LSep 10 · 21:15F. Theodor1.636880V. Reska2.051111113WSep 10 · 19:40V. Reska1.73105111162F. Theodor2.00121177113WSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113WSep 10 · 18:10F. Theodor1.5041511113J. Vanous2.501113931LSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113LSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor2.0081111452K. Zeman1.73119811113WSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113
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