TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111526
Played Sep 10Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
1.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811811––––
Vladislav Reska
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Filip Theodor at 59.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 8–6 Vladislav Reska Vladislav Reska has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Theodor beat Reska 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (56%)
Theodor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Theodor
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1477 vs Reska 1507
Reska
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 60% vs Reska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 70% vs Reska 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +3 · Reska -1
Theodor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Theodor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.63 / Reska 2.05
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Theodor)+4.2pp
TT Cup · #13111526
Theodor1.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite39% won 11 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Reska2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 67 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTheodor5wins
AwayReska5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTheodor80%4 of 5
AwayReska80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S2Theodor7Reska3n = 10Theodor took 7 of 10
S3Theodor5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S4Theodor2Reska4n = 6Reska took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTheodorReskaT − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.035.2+0.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 175 vs 247 / 48746.9%50.7%82 / 175 vs 247 / 487Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.63/Reska 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 19:40F. Theodor—121177113V. Reska—105111162
WSep 7 · 14:15F. Theodor—1111123V. Reska—84100
WAug 27 · 21:10F. Theodor—1113113V. Reska—71190
LAug 27 · 17:40F. Theodor—811661V. Reska—11911113
LAug 9 · 19:15F. Theodor—154961V. Reska—131111113
LJul 27 · 18:40F. Theodor—98100V. Reska—1111123
LJul 7 · 18:45F. Theodor—813171172V. Reska—1115158113
WJun 25 · 16:10F. Theodor—1111113V. Reska—4870
WJun 18 · 20:40F. Theodor—61111113V. Reska—110761
LJun 18 · 20:15F. Theodor—311451V. Reska—11211113
F. Theodor10
WSep 10 · 19:40V. Reska1.73105111162F. Theodor2.00121177113WSep 10 · 19:10T. Ogrocki2.7511371242F. Theodor1.405111110113WSep 10 · 18:10F. Theodor1.5041511113J. Vanous2.501113931LSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113LSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor2.0081111452K. Zeman1.73119811113WSep 7 · 14:45D. Osvald1.57117271F. Theodor2.2591111113WSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113
V. Reska10
LSep 10 · 19:40V. Reska1.73105111162F. Theodor2.00121177113WSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191WSep 10 · 17:40V. Reska1.441113113T. Ogrocki2.6361180LSep 7 · 16:49V. Reska1.536940D. Osvald2.381111113WSep 7 · 15:45D. Osvald1.73111080V. Reska2.001312113WSep 7 · 15:15K. Zeman2.0011316572V. Reska1.737111411113LSep 7 · 14:15V. Reska1.5784100F. Theodor2.251111123WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162
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