TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129227
Played Sep 14Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119117811119
Ondrej Kus
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 54.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 14–21 Ondrej Kus Patrik Jokiel has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-21 in 35
Kus
Wrong
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1370 vs Kus 1377
Kus
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Kus 20%
Jokiel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 40% vs Kus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel +2 · Kus -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.00 / Kus 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13129227
Jokiel2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 72 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Kus1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 38 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it60% 25 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel4wins
AwayKus6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKus leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel33.3%2 of 6
AwayKus50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel6Kus4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S2Jokiel5Kus5n = 10split evenly
S3Jokiel4Kus6n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S4Jokiel1Kus5n = 6Kus took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielKusJ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.336.0−2.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielKusBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 430 vs 260 / 52547%49.5%202 / 430 vs 260 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusJokiel 2.00/Kus 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel35119781O. Kus4291111113
WAug 27 · 13:40P. Jokiel331111113O. Kus225980
WAug 17 · 15:45P. Jokiel45511117113O. Kus4311691162
LJul 26 · 17:40P. Jokiel28115841O. Kus3741111113
LJul 6 · 13:10P. Jokiel31131981O. Kus44111111113
LJul 6 · 11:15P. Jokiel3911124572O. Kus463101111113
LJul 5 · 10:10P. Jokiel227780O. Kus331111113
LJul 3 · 17:15P. Jokiel2467110O. Kus351111133
WJul 3 · 15:45P. Jokiel43101111113O. Kus32125961
WJun 26 · 06:15P. Jokiel331111113O. Kus269980
P. Jokiel10
WSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113WSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282LSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151
O. Kus10
LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113WSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113WSep 13 · 13:10O. Kus2.15811116113O. Skvor1.6011921172WSep 13 · 11:45A. Drozd1.574860O. Kus2.251111103WSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 10:15O. Kus2.1011711742O. Skvor1.67311611113
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