TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128023
Played Sep 14Finished
Karel Zeman
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511711116114911
Patrik Jokiel
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:40 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Zeman above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Karel Zeman at 58.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Karel Zeman 8–7 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jokiel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1443 vs Jokiel 1357
Zeman
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 60% vs Jokiel 20%
Zeman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 60% vs Jokiel 40%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman -1 · Jokiel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.91 / Jokiel 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zeman)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13128023
Zeman1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 28 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back40% 10 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Jokiel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 33 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman4wins
AwayJokiel6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJokiel leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman40%2 of 5
AwayJokiel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S2Zeman3Jokiel7n = 10Jokiel took 7 of 10
S3Zeman6Jokiel4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S4Zeman2Jokiel6n = 8Jokiel took 6 of 8
S5Zeman2Jokiel1n = 3Zeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanJokielZ − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.639.7−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 310 vs 201 / 42955.8%46.9%173 / 310 vs 201 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.91/Jokiel 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 18:10K. Zeman341112561P. Jokiel4371411113
LAug 13 · 17:25K. Zeman321051161P. Jokiel4012116113
WAug 13 · 14:15K. Zeman49811811113P. Jokiel3811711452
LJul 18 · 13:10K. Zeman32651381P. Jokiel44111111113
WJul 18 · 11:40K. Zeman4171112113P. Jokiel371171091
WJul 12 · 15:15K. Zeman49118117123P. Jokiel39311411102
LJun 29 · 21:15K. Zeman2610970P. Jokiel341211113
LJun 29 · 19:40K. Zeman46116118102P. Jokiel52911911123
LApr 5 · 14:45K. Zeman411489101P. Jokiel46121111123
WDec 29 · 15:15K. Zeman361114113P. Jokiel2441280
K. Zeman10
LSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113LSep 13 · 17:15K. Zeman1.808116101O. Skvor1.9011911123WSep 13 · 16:15O. Skvor1.736960K. Zeman2.001111113WSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 13:45F. Theodor2.101212811113K. Zeman1.67101411572WSep 7 · 17:20F. Theodor2.0041111962K. Zeman1.73115811113WSep 7 · 16:15F. Theodor2.0081111452K. Zeman1.73119811113LSep 7 · 15:15K. Zeman2.0011316572V. Reska1.737111411113WSep 7 · 13:45D. Osvald2.0011561172K. Zeman1.73811119113WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670
P. Jokiel10
WSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282LSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 17:15T. Ogrocki1.6712128113P. Jokiel2.1010101151WSep 9 · 15:40K. Przeczek1.57114341P. Jokiel2.2591111113
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