TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139342
Played Sep 16Finished
Jiri Vanous
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6114111113––––
Ondrej Kus
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Vanous above · Ondrej Kus below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 56 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Ondrej Kus at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Vanous 5–6 Ondrej Kus Jiri Vanous has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 08:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vanous
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vanous 1361 vs Kus 1376
Kus
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vanous 20% vs Kus 40%
Kus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vanous 20% vs Kus 40%
Kus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vanous -2 · Kus +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kus form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVanous 1.80 / Kus 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kus)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13139342
Vanous1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 26 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Kus1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 68 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVanous5wins
AwayKus5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVanous75%3 of 4
AwayKus66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vanous4Kus6n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S2Vanous4Kus6n = 10Kus took 6 of 10
S3Vanous6Kus4n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10
S4Vanous3Kus4n = 7Kus took 4 of 7
S5Vanous3Kus2n = 5Vanous took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanousKusV − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.738.9−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanousKusBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 295 vs 262 / 52943.4%49.5%128 / 295 vs 262 / 529Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KusVanous 1.80/Kus 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 17:40J. Vanous45116611113O. Kus4571111882
WJun 3 · 20:40J. Vanous341112113O. Kus1641020
WJun 3 · 18:10J. Vanous4071111113O. Kus34116891
LMar 6 · 21:45J. Vanous144730O. Kus331111113
LMar 6 · 18:40J. Vanous3811581132O. Kus45611116113
LFeb 9 · 19:40J. Vanous205690O. Kus331111113
LFeb 6 · 10:25J. Vanous4571111792O. Kus44119211113
LFeb 6 · 08:15J. Vanous35981261O. Kus43111110113
WJan 18 · 15:45J. Vanous47611118113O. Kus4511991152
WJan 15 · 19:40J. Vanous49116118133O. Kus51911911112
J. Vanous10
LSep 16 · 17:40K. Zeman1.5312711133J. Vanous2.3810116111LSep 10 · 20:44J. Vanous1.80851191T. Ogrocki1.9111115113WSep 10 · 20:10J. Vanous2.00831111113T. Ogrocki1.7311114942LSep 10 · 18:40V. Reska1.5011117113J. Vanous2.50881191LSep 10 · 18:10F. Theodor1.5041511113J. Vanous2.501113931WSep 9 · 20:45V. Molin1.5099111182J. Vanous2.50111197113LSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113LSep 9 · 18:40V. Molin1.5311126113J. Vanous2.389101141LSep 9 · 18:10O. Skvor1.6712114113J. Vanous2.101091191LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133
O. Kus10
WSep 16 · 19:40K. Zeman1.53911841O. Kus2.3811511113WSep 16 · 18:10O. Kus1.8011711113P. Jokiel1.91811961WSep 14 · 20:48K. Zeman1.445960O. Kus2.631111113LSep 14 · 19:45K. Zeman1.4481111113O. Kus2.63118891LSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192LSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113LSep 13 · 16:46O. Kus1.80115471F. Theodor1.9051111113WSep 13 · 15:45F. Theodor1.83115761O. Kus1.8391111113LSep 13 · 15:15K. Zeman1.5071111113O. Kus2.50118761LSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113
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