TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129255
Played Sep 14Finished
Ondrej Skvor
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911811116114
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 62.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 7–11 Patrik Jokiel Ondrej Skvor has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Jokiel
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1515 vs Jokiel 1381
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 100% vs Jokiel 60%
Skvor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 80% vs Jokiel 50%
Skvor
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +5 · Jokiel +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.50 / Jokiel 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Skvor)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13129255
Skvor1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite52% won 44 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it64% 30 of 47
Jokiel2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 72 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvor5wins
AwayJokiel5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor66.7%4 of 6
AwayJokiel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor6Jokiel4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S2Skvor5Jokiel5n = 10split evenly
S3Skvor6Jokiel4n = 10Skvor took 6 of 10
S4Skvor3Jokiel3n = 6split evenly
S5Skvor1Jokiel2n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvorJokielS − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.2+0.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 159 vs 203 / 43151.6%47.1%82 / 159 vs 203 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorSkvor 1.50/Jokiel 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor341211113P. Jokiel2010460
LSep 11 · 19:40O. Skvor3371790P. Jokiel411119113
LSep 9 · 14:10O. Skvor4411571382P. Jokiel528111111113
WSep 5 · 13:10O. Skvor331111113P. Jokiel198380
LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor32661281P. Jokiel43111110113
WAug 30 · 14:15O. Skvor4391112113P. Jokiel371191071
WAug 15 · 10:15O. Skvor39121123113P. Jokiel47108111172
WAug 15 · 08:50O. Skvor341111123P. Jokiel2082100
LAug 15 · 06:45O. Skvor48111251192P. Jokiel53814119113
LAug 7 · 15:15O. Skvor34591191P. Jokiel4011117113
O. Skvor10
WSep 14 · 18:45K. Zeman2.001161291O. Skvor1.7381114113WSep 14 · 18:15O. Kus2.501681161O. Skvor1.5018117113WSep 14 · 17:14O. Skvor1.831211113A. Drozd1.8310290WSep 14 · 15:45A. Drozd1.615580O. Skvor2.201111113WSep 14 · 15:15T. Ogrocki2.20511611102O. Skvor1.61118115123LSep 14 · 14:15O. Skvor1.5711961152K. Przeczek2.25511117113WSep 13 · 17:15K. Zeman1.808116101O. Skvor1.9011911123LSep 13 · 16:15O. Skvor1.736960K. Zeman2.001111113WSep 13 · 14:45F. Theodor1.835870O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 13 · 14:15O. Kus2.052640O. Skvor1.701111113
P. Jokiel10
WSep 14 · 19:15P. Jokiel2.00911118113O. Kus1.7311971192WSep 14 · 17:45K. Zeman1.9157111192P. Jokiel1.80111164113WSep 13 · 12:40A. Drozd1.6291111692P. Jokiel2.15118611113LSep 13 · 12:15O. Skvor1.831211113P. Jokiel1.8310460LSep 13 · 11:15P. Jokiel1.91119781O. Kus1.8091111113LSep 13 · 09:45A. Drozd1.831711610113P. Jokiel1.83158111282LSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.001119113O. Skvor1.7371790LSep 11 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.10813891T. Ogrocki1.67111111113WSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671
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